Michael Carrick wants you to know the mood is good. "We’ve got a really good feeling within the group, I have to say, and within the club from the inside," he said on Friday, in the club's own transcript. Then: "The squad today was in a fantastic place, better than I’ve seen it for a while actually."
Sunday at Elland Road tells us whether he's right. We don't buy it yet. A good feeling at Carrington is worth nothing until it shows up on the pitch, and this is the pitch where the last manager's run ended.
The details:
- Sunday, Oct. 18, 9 a.m. ET (6 a.m. PT), at Elland Road
- Premier League, Matchweek 7 (full schedule)
- US TV: USA Network and Telemundo
- Table: Leeds 7th (9 pts, W2 D3 L1), United 13th (6 pts, W1 D3 L2) (the table)
- Form, last five in all competitions, oldest first: Leeds D L W D L; United L L D D L
- Referee: Darren England (Leeds club preview)
The feeling hasn't reached the results. United haven't won in five in all competitions, and the last win was 4-0 over Sabah on Sep. 10. In the Premier League it's one win from six, and no clean sheet in any of them.
Jamie Jackson in the Guardian asked the obvious question: "If this seems less than credible, and almost certainly a stance coached by United’s PR mandarins, what else would Carrick be expected to say?" Tyrone Marshall's MEN Notebook reports the other side: the squad are "united behind" Carrick.
Both can be true: the players can like the manager and the team can still be 13th. One r/reddevils commenter put it best: "two wins in nine games and the feeling in the group is good. Sure thing, Michael."
Then there's Lisandro Martínez. After the 2-0 loss in Madrid he told Amazon Prime, "I expect more [investment], 100%. I expect more from our technical director" (via the Guardian). On Thursday he apologized for speaking "at a time and place that perhaps were not the right ones" (via the BBC, which says it understands he has also been fined). The Guardian noted the apology "did not mention Wilcox or withdraw the essence of his outburst". Carrick's version: "It’s really not a drama for us as a group."
Maybe it isn't. Martínez aimed at the director of football, and the MEN reports several senior players agree with him. The league doesn't hand out points for that.
Elland Road has heard this before
Jan. 4, Leeds 1-1 United, was Ruben Amorim's last game. He'd demanded the recruitment department "do their job", and that was it for him. Jackson again: "With an uncanny circularity Carrick heads to Elland Road on Sunday after Martínez made similar comments."
Now Leeds are above us in the table, though Leeds Live points out they still "have not beaten arch rivals Man Utd at Elland Road for 24 years" (Opta also dates the last one to September 2002). Daniel Farke won't take the favorite tag: "I'm not sure if we’re the favourites," he said, per Leeds Live.
That's where our attack runs into their defense. United have nine league goals, three each for Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo. Leeds have conceded five in six league matches, joint-fewest in the division. As another commenter in that thread wrote: "Let's see if that lasts in Elland Road cauldron."
Martínez is the tell
The projected lineups split on him. These are Sports Mole's and Opta Analyst's, read early Saturday, Oct. 17, UTC; the real ones are due about an hour before kickoff.
- Sports Mole starts him.
- Opta Analyst leaves him out. Opta's reason: "Yoro being banned for the trip to Como in the Champions League next Wednesday also gives Carrick a footballing reason to leave the Argentine out of the side."
Fair enough, and we'd still start him. If it really is "not a drama", the team sheet is where Carrick proves it, and Leeds away in the league matters more than Como. Bench him and, whatever the rotation logic, it reads like the opposite of Friday's message.
Lineups
Projected lineups
What other outlets predict. The official team sheets go up here about an hour before kickoff.
Read
| No. | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | |
| 1 | Senne Lammens |
| Defense | |
| 15 | Leny Yoro |
| 5 | Harry Maguire |
| 6 | Lisandro Martínez |
| 2 | Diogo Dalot |
| Midfield | |
| 18 | Youri Tielemans |
| 20 | Carlos Baleba |
| 16 | Amad Diallo |
| 8 | Bruno Fernandes |
| 10 | Matheus Cunha |
| Attack | |
| 19 | Bryan Mbeumo |
Read
| No. | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | |
| 1 | Senne Lammens |
| Defense | |
| 2 | Diogo Dalot |
| 15 | Leny Yoro |
| 5 | Harry Maguire |
| 23 | Luke Shaw |
| Midfield | |
| 18 | Youri Tielemans |
| 20 | Carlos Baleba |
| 8 | Bruno Fernandes |
| Attack | |
| 19 | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 9 | Marcus Rashford |
| 10 | Matheus Cunha |
The rest of the team news: Manuel Ugarte, Benjamin Sesko and Patrick Dorgu are out. Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo face late fitness tests (MEN). On Noussair Mazraoui, Carrick told the club site, "Hopefully, we've got Nous back involved with us." Leny Yoro can play, because his ban covers Como only (club team news). For Leeds, Joe Rodon is out ("Joe will still miss his game," Farke said on the Leeds club site) and ex-United man Daniel James is a doubt, though Farke says "there is a chance that he is involved."
Our pick: Leeds 1-1 United
United have scored in four of their six league matches and kept a clean sheet in none, and Leeds don't give much away. We think Carrick's feeling is half real: real enough to take a point at a loud ground, not real enough to win there. That's our call, and the recap will grade it.
What would make us wrong: the back line. If Shaw fails his test and the defense gets reshuffled again, Leeds score first, Elland Road does the rest, and Leeds win.
Alarm's set. Coffee's on. Come on, United.
Sources: Manchester United press conference transcript, team news and Mazraoui update; Leeds United team news and match preview; the Guardian (Jamie Jackson, on the apology); BBC Sport; Manchester Evening News (Notebook, injury update); Leeds Live; Opta Analyst; Sports Mole; r/reddevils press conference thread. Numbers from our schedule and table data.